HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.
Is it safe?
Strong, no red flags: a safe balance sheet, clean books, and quality strong.
Financially healthy, low distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
High fundamental quality Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Multiple insiders bought with their own money (net +$1.3M, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026).
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Moderate price swings, typical volatility. Worst drawdown -73% · now 6% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can HOG take a bad year?
Harley-Davidson, Inc. carries $347M of net debt at 0.89× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at Q2 2026 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.89×
Net debt / EBITDA · 15.1× a year ago · the load is coming down
- Altman Z-score
- 2.13
Altman Z-score · grey zone, between 1.8 and 3
- Cash runway
- 5+ years
Cash runway · burning $33M a quarter at the current rate
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $2.24B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $1.90B
- Net debt
- $347M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $390M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $213M
- Debt / equity
- 0.72×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 5.75×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 41%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −73%
- Below its 52-week high
- 5.5%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.