SMCISuper Micro Computer, Inc.
Is it safe?
Mixed picture: a safe balance sheet, but quality weak and big price swings.
Financially healthy, low distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Some accounting flags, worth a closer look Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Weak, deteriorating fundamentals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$15.4M, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026), selling is often routine.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -85% · now 29% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Jun 30, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can SMCI take a bad year?
The deepest fall in SMCI's price history on file is −85%; it is 29% below its high today.
Altman Z-score · distress below 1.8 · safe above 3 · safe zone, the balance sheet is not what threatens this one
- Cash runway
- 1.1 years
Cash runway · burning $1.74B a quarter at the current rate
- Annualised volatility
- 101%
Annualised volatility · three times the market's own swing
- Worst drawdown on file
- −85%
Worst drawdown on file · −29% today
Details›
- Cash and short-term investments
- $7.54B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $2.82B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $2.77B
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 101%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −85%
- Below its 52-week high
- 29%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.