PKGPackaging Corporation of America
Is it safe?
Mixed picture: a safe balance sheet and clean books, but quality weak.
Financially healthy, low distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
Weak, deteriorating fundamentals Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$10.2M, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026), selling is often routine.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Moderate price swings, typical volatility. Worst drawdown -38% · now 10% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can PKG take a bad year?
Packaging Corporation of America carries $3.38B of net debt at 1.86× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at Q2 2026 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.86×
Net debt / EBITDA · 0.89× a year ago · the load is going up
- Altman Z-score
- 4.00
Altman Z-score · safe zone, above 3
- Debt / equity
- 0.85×
Debt / equity
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $3.97B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $594M
- Net debt
- $3.38B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $1.81B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $1.04B
- Debt / equity
- 0.85×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 2.19×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 27%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −38%
- Below its 52-week high
- 10%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
Packaging & Containers
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