VISTVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V.
Is it safe?
Mostly sound, with a caveat: comfortable debt (AA), but big price swings.
Rock-solid balance sheet, low leverage. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -81% · now 16% below its 52-week high.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can VIST take a bad year?
Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. carries $684M of net debt at 0.64× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at FY2024 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.64×
Net debt / EBITDA · 0.44× a year ago · the load is going up
- Cash runway
- 5+ years
Cash runway · burning $23M a quarter at the current rate
- Annualised volatility
- 50%
Annualised volatility · roughly twice as jumpy as the market
Details›
- Total debtFY2024
- $1.45B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $765M
- Net debt
- $684M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $1.06B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $625M
- Debt / equity
- 0.89×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 1.36×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 50%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −81%
- Below its 52-week high
- 16%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.