RCLRoyal Caribbean Group
Is it safe?
Forensics clean, with a caveat: clean books and quality strong, but big price swings.
Mixed, watch the balance sheet Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
High fundamental quality Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$4.0M, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026), selling is often routine.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -83% · now 19% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can RCL take a bad year?
Royal Caribbean Group carries $22.0B of net debt at 3.17× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at Q2 2026 · between two and four years of EBITDA, normal for a stable business
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 3.17×
Net debt / EBITDA · 2.96× a year ago · the load is going up
- Altman Z-score
- 2.34
Altman Z-score · grey zone, between 1.8 and 3
- Cash runway
- 2.1 years
Cash runway · burning $104M a quarter at the current rate
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $22.8B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $875M
- Net debt
- $22.0B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $6.92B
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $5.10B
- Debt / equity
- 2.23×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 3.30×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 46%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −83%
- Below its 52-week high
- 19%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
Travel Services
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