ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.
Is it safe?
Elevated bankruptcy risk: a balance sheet under strain and big price swings. Everything else is secondary until this clears.
Elevated financial-distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Insiders were net buyers (+$738K, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026). SEC Form 4 filings: officers and directors must report their own trades within two business days.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -75% · now 35% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Dec 31, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can ALK take a bad year?
Alaska Air Group, Inc. carries $3.39B of net debt at 5.75× EBITDA: a heavy load to carry through a bad year.
Net debt · as at Q2 2026 · over four years of earnings before interest, tax and depreciation, heavy
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 5.75×
Net debt / EBITDA · 2.32× a year ago · the load is going up
- Altman Z-score
- 1.12
Altman Z-score · distress zone, below 1.8
- Interest cover
- none
Interest cover · no operating profit to pay the interest bill from
Details›
- Total debtQ2 2026
- $6.05B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.66B
- Net debt
- $3.39B
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $589M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- −$224M
- Debt / equity
- 1.65×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 10.3×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 51%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −75%
- Below its 52-week high
- 35%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.