Treasury desk
The policy rate, overnight money, how each auction went
The price of money
Where the Fed has set it, where it actually trades overnight, and what ten years of it costs.
Fed target range · fed funds traded at 3.88%
SOFR · secured overnight, $3.0tn traded
10-year yield · 33 bp above the 2-year
The Fed's target range is 3.75 to 4.00%; fed funds traded at 3.88% and SOFR at 3.89% on Oct 14, 2026. The 10-year yields 5.10%, 33 bp above the 2-year at 4.77%, so the curve is upward-sloping as of Oct 15, 2026.
The whole curve, real yields and the recession odds live on Economy & rates.
How the auctions went
Every note and bond sale of the past year, judged against the same term's own record: bids per dollar sold, and how much the dealers had to swallow.
The 30-year bond sold at 5.62% on Oct 8, 2026, 2.54 times covered against 2.42 on average, dealers taking 7%: strong demand. Across the latest sale of each term, demand was strong for the 10-year, the 30-year and weak for the 5-year, the 7-year, the 20-year.
- 2-year noteSep 22, 2026 · 2.63×
- 4.79%in line
- 3-year noteOct 6, 2026 · 2.62×
- 4.93%in line
- 5-year noteSep 23, 2026 · 2.21×
- 5.03%weak
- 7-year noteSep 24, 2026 · 2.42×
- 5.08%weak
- 10-year noteOct 7, 2026 · 2.77× · reopening
- 5.30%strong
- 20-year bondSep 15, 2026 · 2.57× · reopening
- 5.42%weak
- 30-year bondOct 8, 2026 · 2.54× · reopening
- 5.62%strong
| Date | Sale | Size | High yield | Over median | Bid to cover | Indirect | Dealers | Demand |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | 30-year bondreopening | $22bn | 5.618% | 5.1 bp | 2.54×vs 2.42 | 72% | 7%vs 10% | strong |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 10-year notereopening | $39bn | 5.300% | 4.5 bp | 2.77×vs 2.51 | 80% | 3%vs 9% | strong |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3-year note | $58bn | 4.932% | 5.2 bp | 2.62×vs 2.65 | 58% | 11%vs 12% | in line |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 7-year note | $44bn | 5.085% | 6.6 bp | 2.42×vs 2.48 | 57% | 13%vs 12% | weak |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 5-year note | $70bn | 5.033% | 8.3 bp | 2.21×vs 2.34 | 54% | 16%vs 12% | weak |
| Sep 23, 2026 | 2-year floating-rate notereopening | $28bn | 4.0 bp | 3.0 bp | 2.63×vs 3.25 | 59% | 41%vs 35% | weak |
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2-year note | $69bn | 4.787% | 4.9 bp | 2.63×vs 2.61 | 58% | 13%vs 12% | in line |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 10-year TIPSreopening | $19bn | 2.653% | 7.6 bp | 2.24×vs 2.38 | 59% | 12%vs 12% | weak |
| Sep 15, 2026 | 20-year bondreopening | $13bn | 5.420% | 6.0 bp | 2.57×vs 2.64 | 52% | 17%vs 11% | weak |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 30-year bondreopening | $22bn | 5.308% | 5.8 bp | 2.61×vs 2.40 | 79% | 2%vs 11% | strong |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 10-year notereopening | $39bn | 4.834% | 6.5 bp | 2.71×vs 2.49 | 79% | 4%vs 10% | strong |
| Sep 8, 2026 | 3-year note | $58bn | 4.474% | 4.4 bp | 2.72×vs 2.65 | 62% | 11%vs 13% | strong |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 7-year note | $44bn | 4.512% | 5.2 bp | 2.50×vs 2.48 | 61% | 12%vs 12% | in line |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 5-year note | $70bn | 4.393% | 5.3 bp | 2.37×vs 2.34 | 62% | 10%vs 12% | strong |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 2-year floating-rate notereopening | $28bn | 5.5 bp | 1.0 bp | 3.14×vs 3.26 | 67% | 33%vs 35% | in line |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 2-year note | $69bn | 4.204% | 4.7 bp | 2.60×vs 2.61 | 66% | 11%vs 12% | in line |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 30-year TIPSreopening | $8.0bn | 2.973% | 4.8 bp | 2.82×vs 2.75 | 84% | 2%vs 2% | n/a |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 20-year bond | $16bn | 5.204% | 5.7 bp | 2.53×vs 2.65 | 63% | 12%vs 11% | weak |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 30-year bond | $25bn | 5.216% | 6.6 bp | 2.39×vs 2.40 | 67% | 12%vs 11% | in line |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 10-year note | $42bn | 4.683% | 5.3 bp | 2.53×vs 2.48 | 77% | 9%vs 10% | strong |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 3-year note | $58bn | 4.291% | 4.8 bp | 2.71×vs 2.64 | 64% | 12%vs 13% | strong |
| Jul 29, 2026 | 2-year floating-rate note | $30bn | 5.0 bp | 1.6 bp | 3.37×vs 3.25 | 63% | 37%vs 35% | in line |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 7-year note | $44bn | 4.473% | 6.8 bp | 2.49×vs 2.47 | 70% | 13%vs 12% | in line |
| Jul 27, 2026 | 2-year note | $69bn | 4.315% | 4.5 bp | 2.66×vs 2.61 | 57% | 9%vs 12% | strong |
The bills
The short end, sold every week: the latest sale of each term and what the government paid for the money.
- 4-week billOct 15, 2026 · $110bn · 2.56×
- 4.068%
- 6-week billOct 13, 2026 · $95bn · 2.58×
- 4.055%
- 8-week billOct 15, 2026 · $105bn · 2.26×
- 4.132%
- 13-week billOct 13, 2026 · $95bn · 2.68×
- 4.185%
- 17-week billOct 14, 2026 · $75bn · 2.79×
- 4.313%
- 26-week billOct 13, 2026 · $82bn · 2.76×
- 4.351%
- 52-week billSep 29, 2026 · $54bn · 3.07×
- 4.616%
The rate shown is the investment rate, the yield a buyer earns holding the bill to maturity.
What is coming
The sales the Treasury has announced. Sizes appear when the offering is announced, usually the Thursday before.
- 26-week billOct 19, 2026
- $82bn
- 13-week bill, reopeningOct 19, 2026
- $95bn
- 6-week bill, reopeningOct 20, 2026
- $95bn
- 20-year bond, reopeningOct 21, 2026
- $13bn
- 5-year TIPSOct 22, 2026
- $26bn
The rest of the week, with the Fed, GDP and the results filings, is on What is coming.
Auction results and announcements from TreasuryDirect; overnight rates and the target range from the New York Fed; the 2-year and 10-year from the Treasury’s daily par curve. The demand verdict compares an auction’s bid-to-cover and primary-dealer share with the same term’s auctions over the prior year: at least half a standard deviation better on the two together is strong, half a standard deviation worse is weak, and a term with fewer than four prior sales is not judged. “Over median” is the high yield less the median accepted yield, the public cousin of the tail traders quote against the when-issued price. Indirect bidders are mostly foreign official accounts and funds bidding through a dealer; the dealers themselves must absorb what nobody else took.