MCDMcDonald's
Is the price fair?
The yardsticks disagree: cheap against its own 5-year P/E range (17th percentile) but the cash-flow math implies demanding growth. Treat as fair, not cheap.
Priced for ~9% a year FCF growth. The price demands more than its three-year revenue growth of 5% a year, priced for acceleration.
Cheap vs its own history: P/E 19.1 vs a 23.2 median over 41 quarters (−18% vs median).
Where this answer is blind. The growth-implied estimate assumes a fixed discount rate; capital-heavy sectors look structurally rich on it.
What MCD's price assumes
McDonald's trades at 19.1× earnings against 29.0× for the median Restaurants name, cheaper than its own group.
Trailing P/E · Restaurants median 29.0 · cheaper than the typical name in its group
- Price / sales
- 8.02
Price / sales · as of 2023-Q4
- Free cash flow yield
- 3.9%
Free cash flow yield · Restaurants median 4.3%
- Growth the price implies
- +8.9%
Growth the price implies · The price pays for +8.9% free cash flow growth a year for a decade; the business has delivered +5.3% a year over the last three.
Details›
- EV / EBITas of 2023-Q4
- 20.7
- EV / salesas of 2023-Q4
- 9.47
- Consumer Cyclical median P/E321 names
- 17.8
- Restaurants median P/E30 names
- 29.0
- Free cash flow, trailing twelve months
- $7.76B
- Market capitalisation
- $198.0B
- 3-year revenue growth
- +4.6%
- 3-year free cash flow growth
- +5.3%
| Method | Per share |
|---|---|
| Its own P/E history, lower quartile | $260.72 |
| Its own P/E history, median | $285.44 |
| Its own P/E history, upper quartile | $313.41 |
| 52-week range | $230.86 – $336.88 |
| Today | $235.25 |
Multiples from SEC filings and end-of-day closes; implied growth from a reverse discounted cash flow. Group medians across the names Ryufin tracks.
Restaurants
The closest names by size in the same industry