CIENCiena
Is it safe?
Forensics clean, with a caveat: a safe balance sheet and clean books, but big price swings.
Financially healthy, low distress risk Altman Z-score, a bankruptcy-risk model from five balance-sheet ratios.
Reported earnings show no manipulation flags Beneish M-score, a forensic model that detects earnings-manipulation patterns (receivables outrunning sales, margins slipping, accrual-heavy profit).
High fundamental quality Piotroski F-score, nine pass/fail tests of year-over-year financial health across profitability, balance sheet and efficiency. 7 to 9 is strong, 0 to 3 weak.
Insiders were net sellers (-$17.5M, 90 days to Oct 8, 2026), selling is often routine.
Investment-grade balance sheet. A rule of thumb on leverage, not a credit rating.
Large price swings, high volatility. Worst drawdown -50% · now 28% below its 52-week high.
Unless marked, from SEC EDGAR, as of Nov 1, 2025.
Against the whole market›
Percentile against every name Ryufin tracks. Higher is better; the tick marks the middle of the market. Context, not one of the checks above.
Where this answer is blind. Altman sits structurally low for utilities and pipelines; Beneish runs high for fast growers, since sales growth alone lifts it; banks and REITs are excluded.
Can CIEN take a bad year?
Ciena carries $600M of net debt at 0.74× EBITDA: a load its earnings can carry.
Net debt · as at Q3 2026 · under two and a half years of EBITDA, comfortable
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 0.74×
Net debt / EBITDA · 0.69× a year ago · the load is going up
- Altman Z-score
- 13.20
Altman Z-score · safe zone, above 3
- Interest cover
- 10.6×
Interest cover · operating profit covers the interest bill several times over
Details›
- Total debtQ3 2026
- $3.23B
- Cash and short-term investments
- $2.63B
- Net debt
- $600M
- EBITDA, trailing twelve months
- $806M
- Operating profit, trailing twelve months
- $739M
- Debt / equity
- 1.06×
- Total debt / EBITDA
- 4.01×
- Annualised volatilitytwo years of daily moves
- 66%
- Worst drawdown on file
- −50%
- Below its 52-week high
- 28%
Balance sheet from SEC filings; drawdown and volatility from end-of-day closes; Altman Z from the filed statements.
Communication Equipment
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