Lesson 9 of 12 · 2 min · Valuation

Buybacks and dilution

Your slice can quietly grow or shrink.

Pencil drawing of two pies: one cut into eight slices with a small red slice marked more shares, one cut into four with a larger green slice marked fewer shares.
Open the drawn lesson
  1. Your slice of a company depends on how many shares exist. When a company issues new shares, every old slice gets a little smaller. That is dilution.

  2. Say Lemon Co hands its staff 50,000 new shares every year. That is 5% more shares, so profit per share grows 5% slower than profit itself.

  3. A buyback works the other way. With its $1.2 million of free cash, Lemon Co could buy back 40,000 of its own shares at $30. Every remaining share owns a little more.

  4. But buybacks only create value when the shares are cheap. Buying back stock that is worth $20 for $30 destroys money, just more quietly than a bad acquisition.

  5. So always check the share count over several years. Falling is usually good news. Rising steadily is a cost to you, even if profit looks great.

Quick question

A company’s profit grows 10% a year, but it issues 8% more shares every year. How fast does profit per share grow?

  • About 10%
  • About 2%
  • About 18%
Show the answer

About 2%

The profit is shared by 8% more shares each year, so each share gets only about 2% more.

Keep this one

Count the shares, not just the profit.

Where this comes from

Share counts are reported every quarter in the company’s filings. Lemon Co is invented for teaching.